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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

JAX
30.3%
PIT
69.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.132 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.096 EPA/dropback
  • PIT defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.174 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

JAX

Lerentee McCray LB Out Knee
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Ribs
Brandon Linder C Questionable Illness
Jaelen Strong WR Questionable Hamstring
Jarrod Wilson S Questionable Shoulder

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 30
–
PIT 9

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 FG PIT (10:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. JAX 0 – PIT 3
  • Q2 12:23 TD JAX (12:23) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-48-B.Dupree, Defensive Offside, declined. JAX 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG PIT (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. JAX 7 – PIT 6
  • Q3 08:57 FG PIT (8:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. JAX 7 – PIT 9
  • Q3 06:44 TD JAX (6:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 50-T.Smith (95-A.Jones) at PIT 28. 50-T.Smith for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – PIT 9
  • Q3 04:11 TD JAX (4:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle intended for 84-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 42-B.Church (20-J.Ramsey) at JAX 49. 42-B.Church for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – PIT 9
  • Q4 06:48 FG JAX (6:48) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 23 – PIT 9
  • Q4 02:00 TD JAX (2:00) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-L.Fournette left tackle for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 29 – PIT 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:30) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to PIT 28, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (10:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 51%

    (7:31) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to PIT 4, Center-43-M.Overton, downed by JAX-52-D.Payne.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to JAX 8, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 19-M.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to PIT 5, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 29 yards to PIT 48, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (8:57) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:31) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to PIT 33, Center-43-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown to PIT 40 for 7 yards (30-C.Grant). Penalty on PIT-24-C.Sensabaugh, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 33.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to JAX 4, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-55-A.Moats.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%

    (6:48) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 30%

    (4:35) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to PIT 14, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.