Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(13:30) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to PIT 28, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model