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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to PIT 5, Center-43-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model