4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 29 yards to PIT 48, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.80 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model