Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(7:31) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to PIT 33, Center-43-M.Overton. 84-A.Brown to PIT 40 for 7 yards (30-C.Grant). Penalty on PIT-24-C.Sensabaugh, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model