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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:21) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.33 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model