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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to JAX 4, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-55-A.Moats.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model