Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-14-C.Thompson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at KC 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model