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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 20:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

KC
53.6%
HOU
46.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 23
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: KC by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

KC

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Knee
Dee Ford LB Out Back
Mitch Morse C Out Foot

HOU

Kyle Fuller G Out Hamstring
Ben Heeney LB Out Knee
Kevin Johnson CB Out Knee
Greg Mancz C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 42
–
HOU 34

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:57 FG KC (6:57) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 11:28 FG KC (11:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 05:52 TD KC (5:52) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 35-C.West for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – HOU 0
  • Q2 04:21 FG KC (4:21) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 16 – HOU 0
  • Q2 01:54 TD HOU (1:54) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. KC 16 – HOU 6
  • Q2 00:41 TD KC (:41) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 22 – HOU 7
  • Q3 03:28 TD HOU (3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller V for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – HOU 13
  • Q4 14:05 FG KC (14:05) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 26 – HOU 13
  • Q4 12:09 TD HOU (12:09) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller V for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – HOU 19
  • Q4 09:02 TD KC (9:02) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 13-D.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 32 – HOU 20
  • Q4 07:41 TD KC (7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 38 – HOU 20
  • Q4 03:05 TD HOU (3:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 39 – HOU 26
  • Q4 01:13 FG KC (1:13) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 42 – HOU 26
  • Q4 00:05 TD HOU (:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 42 – HOU 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (6:57) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 53%

    (2:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to KC 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 11 for 8 yards (51-D.Cole). (The Punt Hang-time was 4.03 seconds.)

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

    (11:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-14-C.Thompson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at KC 33.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (4:21) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 16 for -7 yards (43-C.Moore). (The Punt Hang-time was 4.37 seconds.)

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to HOU 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis. (The Punt Hang-time was 4.50 seconds.)

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller V for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (14:05) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to KC 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 18 for -4 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on KC-21-E.Murray, Illegal Use of Hands, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to HOU 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-W.Fuller V to KC 37 for 49 yards (2-D.Colquitt).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (1:13) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.