KC @ HOU — 4th & Data

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Houston Texans

2-3 HC Bill O'Brien

Sunday 2017-10-08 · 20:30 ET NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

49.0%

HOU

51.0%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

HOU defense: -0.165 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
KC offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
HOU offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 22 15–29

–

HOU 23 16–30

Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

KC

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Knee

Dee Ford LB Out Back

Mitch Morse C Out Foot

HOU

Kyle Fuller G Out Hamstring

Ben Heeney LB Out Knee

Kevin Johnson CB Out Knee

Greg Mancz C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 42

–

HOU 34

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:57 FG KC (6:57) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – HOU 0
Q2 11:28 FG KC (11:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – HOU 0
Q2 05:52 TD KC (5:52) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 35-C.West for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – HOU 0
Q2 04:21 FG KC (4:21) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 16 – HOU 0
Q2 01:54 TD HOU (1:54) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. KC 16 – HOU 6
Q2 00:41 TD KC (:41) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 35-C.West for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 22 – HOU 7
Q3 03:28 TD HOU (3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller V for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – HOU 13
Q4 14:05 FG KC (14:05) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 26 – HOU 13
Q4 12:09 TD HOU (12:09) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller V for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – HOU 19
Q4 09:02 TD KC (9:02) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 13-D.Thomas for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 32 – HOU 20
Q4 07:41 TD KC (7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 38 – HOU 20
Q4 03:05 TD HOU (3:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 39 – HOU 26
Q4 01:13 FG KC (1:13) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 42 – HOU 26
Q4 00:05 TD HOU (:05) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 42 – HOU 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

(6:57) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 53%

(2:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to KC 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 11 for 8 yards (51-D.Cole). (The Punt Hang-time was 4.03 seconds.)
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 24

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

(11:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(10:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-14-C.Thompson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at KC 33.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

(4:21) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(13:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 16 for -7 yards (43-C.Moore). (The Punt Hang-time was 4.37 seconds.)
See the full breakdown →
Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 55

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(7:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to HOU 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-K.Pierre-Louis. (The Punt Hang-time was 4.50 seconds.)
See the full breakdown →
Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 9

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%

(3:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 15-W.Fuller V for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

(14:05) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 HOU 4th & 18 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(5:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to KC 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 18 for -4 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on KC-21-E.Murray, Illegal Use of Hands, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 67 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(3:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to HOU 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-W.Fuller V to KC 37 for 49 yards (2-D.Colquitt).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

(1:13) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
See the full breakdown →

Kansas City Chiefs