4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model