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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 32

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to KC 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model