Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 76

Houston Texans 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 39

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to KC 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas to KC 18 for -4 yards (57-B.Scarlett). PENALTY on KC-21-E.Murray, Illegal Use of Hands, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.68 EP
75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model