Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 39 – Houston Texans 20

(3:41) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to HOU 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-W.Fuller V to KC 37 for 49 yards (2-D.Colquitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.67 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model