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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 39 – Houston Texans 26

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model