4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 41

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to KC 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-D.Thomas pushed ob at KC 11 for 8 yards (51-D.Cole). (The Punt Hang-time was 4.03 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model