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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP