Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 90

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 8-D.Kaser punts 51 yards to NYG 39, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to NYG 45 for 6 yards (43-M.Davis). Penalty on NYG-95-N.Capi, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.94 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 90, worth -5.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model