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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

LAC
46.6%
NYG
53.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.034 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 22
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

LAC

Branden Oliver RB Out Hamstring
Mike Williams WR Out Back
Joe Barksdale T Questionable Foot
Sean McGrath TE Questionable Foot
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Neck
Jatavis Brown LB Questionable Ankle

NYG

Paul Perkins RB Out Ribs
Weston Richburg C Out Concussion
John Jerry G Questionable Hamstring
Avery Moss DE Questionable Shoulder
Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Ankle
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 27
–
NYG 22

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:58 SAF NYG (8:58) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers Aborted. 73-S.Pulley FUMBLES at LAC 1, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. LAC 0 – NYG 2
  • Q1 02:24 TD NYG (2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-O.Darkwa right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – NYG 8
  • Q2 13:07 TD LAC (13:07) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 28-M.Gordon for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – NYG 9
  • Q2 00:09 FG LAC (:09) 9-N.Novak 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. LAC 10 – NYG 9
  • Q3 06:53 TD NYG (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 18-R.Lewis for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 10 – NYG 15
  • Q3 00:51 TD LAC (:51) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 86-H.Henry for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-J.Bromley]. LAC 16 – NYG 16
  • Q4 13:41 TD NYG (13:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 17 – NYG 22
  • Q4 04:54 FG LAC (4:54) 9-N.Novak 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. LAC 20 – NYG 22
  • Q4 03:04 TD LAC (3:04) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 28-M.Gordon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 26 – NYG 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 47 yards to NYG 21, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:56) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to LAC 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (6:38) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to LAC 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to NYG 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to NYG 36 for 17 yards (31-A.Phillips, 48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 20%

    (10:47) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to LAC 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:47) 8-D.Kaser punts 51 yards to NYG 39, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to NYG 45 for 6 yards (43-M.Davis). Penalty on NYG-95-N.Capi, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (8:06) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to LAC 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:02) 8-D.Kaser punts 51 yards to NYG 46, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LAC 39 for 15 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 61%

    (6:05) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:26) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to NYG 19, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:53) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to LAC 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 44 for 9 yards (89-J.Adams). PENALTY on NYG-24-E.Apple, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 44.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (:09) 9-N.Novak 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:49) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to LAC 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at NYG 49 for 19 yards (89-J.Adams). NYG-95-N.Capi was injured during the play.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:17) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to LAC 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 39 for 7 yards (95-N.Capi).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (4:54) 9-N.Novak 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Boston (94-C.Liuget) at LAC 33. 33-T.Boston to LAC 48 for 15 yards (34-S.Vereen).