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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 38

New York Giants 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to LAC 3, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP