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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 36

New York Giants 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.16 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP