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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(:09) 9-N.Novak 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP