Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 85

New York Giants 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:49) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to LAC 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at NYG 49 for 19 yards (89-J.Adams). NYG-95-N.Capi was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.84 EP
73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model