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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model