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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 17 at the 87

New York Giants 22 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to LAC 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 39 for 7 yards (95-N.Capi).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model