4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Giants 2

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 62 yards to NYG 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to NYG 36 for 17 yards (31-A.Phillips, 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 38, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP