Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 76

New England Patriots 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(13:48) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to TB 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Reedy to TB 32 for 6 yards (55-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.88 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model