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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Thursday 2017-10-05 · 20:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

NE
53.4%
TB
46.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.158 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.232 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
TB 23
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NE

Eric Rowe CB Out Groin
Rex Burkhead RB Out Ribs
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Ankle
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Thigh
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Brandon King S Questionable Hamstring
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Ankle
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring

TB

Kwon Alexander LB Out Hamstring
Lavonte David LB Doubtful Ankle
Keith Tandy S Doubtful Hip
T.J. Ward S Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 19
–
TB 14

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:25 FG NE (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 08:33 TD TB (8:33) 22-D.Martin up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – TB 6
  • Q2 03:48 TD NE (3:48) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – TB 7
  • Q2 00:43 FG NE (:43) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – TB 7
  • Q3 09:59 FG NE (9:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 16 – TB 7
  • Q4 02:15 TD TB (2:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 84-C.Brate for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 16 – TB 13
  • Q4 01:14 FG NE (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 19 – TB 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 22%

    (11:36) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NE 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (10:44) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Reedy to TB 36 for 14 yards (29-J.Bademosi).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%

    (8:42) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NE 2, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (1:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:33) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NE 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 33 for 9 yards (39-I.Johnson). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 33.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:48) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to TB 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Reedy to TB 32 for 6 yards (55-C.Marsh).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to NE 18, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to TB 42 for 40 yards (39-I.Johnson). PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TB 42.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:43) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:32) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 57 yards to NE 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 13 for 2 yards (12-C.Godwin). PENALTY on NE-43-N.Ebner, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at NE 13.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 80%

    (9:59) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (6:51) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 72%

    (14:19) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 33
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 67%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to TB 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (5:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:38) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to TB 17, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-B.Reedy to TB 26 for 9 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 74%

    (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.