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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 51

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NE 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model