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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 33

New England Patriots 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to TB 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP