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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model