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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 30

New England Patriots 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.24 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model