4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to NE 2, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by TB-29-R.Smith.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP