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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 9

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:25) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP