Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NE 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at NE 33 for 9 yards (39-I.Johnson). PENALTY on NE-38-B.Bolden, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model