Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to SF 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-T.Taylor to SF 27 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker). PENALTY on SF-30-A.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.24 EP
66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model