Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- IND defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- SF defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.148 vs Brian Hoyer (SF) -0.067 EPA/dropback
- IND offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
SF
IND
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:15 FG IND (9:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 0 – IND 3
- Q1 02:41 FG SF (2:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – IND 3
- Q2 01:03 FG IND (1:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 3 – IND 6
- Q2 00:07 FG SF (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – IND 6
- Q3 07:51 FG IND (7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 6 – IND 9
- Q3 03:26 TD IND (3:26) (Run formation) 25-M.Mack right tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – IND 15
- Q4 13:44 FG SF (13:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 9 – IND 16
- Q4 10:01 TD IND (10:01) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – IND 22
- Q4 08:04 TD SF (8:04) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – IND 23
- Q4 00:24 TD SF (:24) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 22 – IND 23
- Q5 01:43 FG IND (1:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. SF 23 – IND 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 19 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 70%
(9:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%
(2:41) 9-R.Gould 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:56) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:18) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to IND 40, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-Q.Bray to IND 34 for -6 yards. Lateral to 81-K.Hogan to IND 27 for -7 yards (47-E.Lee). FUMBLES (47-E.Lee), and recovers at IND 25. 81-K.Hogan to IND 26 for 1 yard (50-B.Coyle).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(12:44) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to SF 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 81-T.Taylor to SF 27 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker). PENALTY on SF-30-A.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 18.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(11:08) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to IND 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 18 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 27%
(7:59) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 33 yards to SF 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(5:10) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 13 yards (54-R.Armstrong).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(1:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(13:09) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to 50, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds. SF-30-A.Jackson was injured during the play. He is Out.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 91%
(7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 89%
(13:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:37) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SF 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%
(2:47) (Run formation) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to IND 21 for 19 yards (21-V.Davis).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 5 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(:24) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown →
