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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to IND 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 13 yards (54-R.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.64 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model