Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 6

(13:09) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to 50, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds. SF-30-A.Jackson was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.93 EP
75% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model