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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.23 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model