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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(13:44) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.69 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model