Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 62

Indianapolis Colts 23 – San Francisco 49ers 16

(5:37) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SF 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model