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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(2:47) (Run formation) 2-B.Hoyer pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle to IND 21 for 19 yards (21-V.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.55 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 40, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model