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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Indianapolis Colts 23

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.77 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP