Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 91

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(13:18) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to IND 40, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-Q.Bray to IND 34 for -6 yards. Lateral to 81-K.Hogan to IND 27 for -7 yards (47-E.Lee). FUMBLES (47-E.Lee), and recovers at IND 25. 81-K.Hogan to IND 26 for 1 yard (50-B.Coyle).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.05 EP
64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model