Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

(2:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to MIA 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 21 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model