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Tennessee Titans

2-3 HC Mike Mularkey
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Miami Dolphins

2-2 HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread PK O/U 41.5

Win Probability

TEN
40.9%
MIA
59.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.001 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.109 vs Matt Cassel (TEN) -0.207 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Matt Cassel in place of Marcus Mariota)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20 13–27
–
MIA 22 15–29
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

TEN

Johnathan Cyprien S Out Hamstring
Corey Davis WR Out Hamstring
Marcus Mariota QB Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Terrence Fede DE Questionable Shoulder
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Shoulder
Mike Hull LB Questionable Shoulder
Byron Maxwell CB Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 10
–
MIA 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:57 FG MIA (:57) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. TEN 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 00:12 TD MIA (:12) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel sacked at TEN 24 for -7 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso) [47-K.Alonso], RECOVERED by MIA-20-R.Jones at TEN 38. 20-R.Jones for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 0 – MIA 9
  • Q2 09:42 FG TEN (9:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – MIA 10
  • Q3 07:31 TD TEN (7:31) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 89-P.Supernaw for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – MIA 10
  • Q4 10:38 TD MIA (10:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – MIA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:24) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 14 for 4 yards (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Tankersley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at MIA 14.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (11:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 62 yards to TEN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 25-A.Jackson ran ob at TEN 35 for 12 yards (78-T.Fede).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 22%

    (6:26) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to MIA 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:48) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 54 yards to TEN 39, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (:57) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 80%

    (9:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:24) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 59 yards to TEN 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-M.Thomas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (5:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on TEN-33-T.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 45.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (2:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to MIA 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 21 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:50) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 14 for 1 yard (33-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:13) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 57 yards to TEN 31, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:54) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to TEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 18 at the 99
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 71 yards to MIA 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 41 for 13 yards (53-D.Bates).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (1:46) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 40 yards to TEN 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-M.Thomas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to MIA 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 42 for 14 yards (14-E.Weems).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:27) (Pass formation) 6-B.Kern punts 64 yards to MIA 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 29 for 10 yards (33-T.Smith).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to MIA 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TEN 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-14-E.Weems, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.

    See the full breakdown →