Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TEN offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- MIA offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- QB edge to MIA: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.109 vs Matt Cassel (TEN) -0.207 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Matt Cassel in place of Marcus Mariota)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
TEN
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:57 FG MIA (:57) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. TEN 0 – MIA 3
- Q1 00:12 TD MIA (:12) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel sacked at TEN 24 for -7 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso) [47-K.Alonso], RECOVERED by MIA-20-R.Jones at TEN 38. 20-R.Jones for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TEN 0 – MIA 9
- Q2 09:42 FG TEN (9:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – MIA 10
- Q3 07:31 TD TEN (7:31) 16-M.Cassel pass short left to 89-P.Supernaw for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – MIA 10
- Q4 10:38 TD MIA (10:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 10 – MIA 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:24) 6-B.Kern punts 60 yards to MIA 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 14 for 4 yards (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Tankersley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 7 yards, enforced at MIA 14.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 85Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 61%
(11:18) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 62 yards to TEN 23, Center-92-J.Denney. 25-A.Jackson ran ob at TEN 35 for 12 yards (78-T.Fede).
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Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 22%
(6:26) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to MIA 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-36-L.Sims.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(4:48) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 54 yards to TEN 39, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%
(:57) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(12:50) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 80%
(9:42) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:24) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 59 yards to TEN 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-M.Thomas.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 45 for 5 yards. PENALTY on TEN-33-T.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 45.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(2:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to MIA 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 21 for no gain (41-B.Trawick).
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Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(1:50) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant to MIA 14 for 1 yard (33-T.Smith).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:13) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 57 yards to TEN 31, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:54) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to TEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 18 at the 99Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(3:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 71 yards to MIA 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 41 for 13 yards (53-D.Bates).
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Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%
(1:46) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 40 yards to TEN 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-31-M.Thomas.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(:40) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 63 yards to MIA 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 42 for 14 yards (14-E.Weems).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:27) (Pass formation) 6-B.Kern punts 64 yards to MIA 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 29 for 10 yards (33-T.Smith).
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Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(3:00) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to MIA 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 59 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58%
(:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TEN 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-14-E.Weems, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.