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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 99

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 71 yards to MIA 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 41 for 13 yards (53-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -4.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 99, worth -6.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model