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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 10 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(9:27) (Pass formation) 6-B.Kern punts 64 yards to MIA 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-J.Landry to MIA 29 for 10 yards (33-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 41, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model