Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 16 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 45 yards to TEN 14, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-14-E.Weems, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP

58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.38 EP
42% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -1.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model