4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(:57) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model